Magazine - Severe Wintry Weather set to Cause Chaos for UK

22 Feb 2006 by jontaylor

Jim
Whilst weather warnings like this can be useful, they can also cost jobs. British industry is struggling for many reasons, not the least of which is high energy costs. There is a strong link between severe weather warnings and increased spot market fuel prices.
My previous employers went out of business due, in large part, to the dramatic gas price rises following the warnings of last year's severe winter (remember the warnings and remember what actually happened?).
Yes, these warnings may save lives (is that proven?) and they can help weather-dependant people make informed choices, but please remember the downsides of headline grabbing speculation.
Jon

The ciderman rolls

22 Feb 2006 by Stephen Bache

Thats not what The Met office is saying. Cooler yes but not the rest of the statement.

22 Feb 2006 by noelrdale

Jon

I take onboard your comments and I'd like if I may reply. Firstly, the severe and protracted 2005/6winter warning was issued by the Met Office back in October - and re-stated several times by their spokespersons up to mid January, when it became apparent that it would not happen. Many of the headlines that followed the prediction were sensationalist - but there is no getting away from the fact that your comments do hold water concerning fuel prices/lost jobs - in particular when the organisation issuing such predictions previously suggested that it was impossible to predict more than 10 days ahead !

Turning to our own forecast - which covers a much more modest 1-15 day period. We would not have issued this forecast is what we were seeing unwind did not look likely and had not been consistently carried for the past few days. The precise detail of who gets what and when is for our clients - many of whom are members of the Pitchcare site. However, we thought it appropriate to issue a general warning to all and sundry - not to alarm but to assist in terms of preparations. It is a forecast for sure, but until we can be 100% sure of the weather (which is highly unlikely) , then please take comfort in the fact that you are at least wise to the event without having had to pay for it. Which must be of some comfort.

22 Feb 2006 by noelrdale

Bache

"Cooler" is a summer word. In the circumstances we are forseeing, "much colder, "very chilly" "bitterly cold" are much more the order of the day. If you are in any doubt, watch the space - and if you require professional guidance, well the door is always open.

Jim

22 Feb 2006 by ticky21

all i know is, that my mobile has been red hot from customers wanting to know what miracle stroke i can pull to get games on with these down pours...i did suggest everyone buys an X Dome but that did not cut any ice with the uninformed....LOL...Cheers Ticky

Ticky supports British farmers...!!

22 Feb 2006 by mario

Sounds as if up here in Aberdeen it's going to be blissfully tropical!!

I know no boundaries.

23 Feb 2006 by Stephen Bache

Please forgive my description of temperatures less warm as cooler (summer word?). Could I ask your professional advice and define the phrase “Artic like weather” must be at least –15c or would that be over egging the pudding a little?

23 Feb 2006 by noelrdale

Bache,

Yep probably is over egging the pudding a little, but it'll feel like -15 c in the winds of early to mid week, next week. Everything this morning is on target for a real wintry set-up - polar lows, winds from the Arctic etc. My confidence yesterday was 75% today 85% - and for a meteorologist looking 4-10 days head, that's high ! I'm sure the MO will catch up soon.

Jim

27 Feb 2006 by Cornish

It looks to me as if Jim's forecast from last Wednesday is very much on track, so congratulations to him for being first out the blocks on this one, by some considerable distance too.

The media forecasts both on TV and in the press are now full of cold weather and snow, so my interpretation of match so far is.....

Jim 1 - The Met Office 0

Perhaps Jim will update us across the next day or so.

Cornish

27 Feb 2006 by noelrdale

Thanks Cornish,

Certainly things are on target with the far north, a few eastern counties and several parts of the west likely to see snow showers into the middle of the week. Then it's to the south and southwest that things get very interestring as we go towards the weekend. Milder rain-beairng air will try to move in across what will be some very cold air over the UK and that's when the fireworks will probably begin in earnest. At the moment southern and midland counties are at risk - the detail is uncertain at this stage, but Fri-Sun seem lilkely to be nasty in places. Finally, here at British Weather Services we tend to do our own thing and many of you guys who use Live Line will realise that we adpot a very professional approach. As for the Met Office and their big time winter prediction - well how severe has this winter actually been ? My case rests.

27 Feb 2006 by Cornish

As for the Met Office and their big time winter prediction - well how severe has this winter actually been ? My case rests.

Fair point there Jim and remember this, any severe wintry weather that occurs after Tuesday cannot be attributed to Winter, as Spring offically starts (at least at the MO) on Wednesday 1st March.

I hope you will keep us updated later this week, especially if things look as bad in the south as you think.

Cornish

28 Feb 2006 by petermarkcraig

I don't know about all this meteorology stuff but my dear late Grandma's barometer says it's going to be tators out there and it's NEVER wrong

So if you want a fast and accurate forecast call me and I'll only charge you 50p a minute

Of course the grass looks good. The sun is shining.

28 Feb 2006 by noelrdale

Peter,

I hate to say this as you've taken the time to post a reply - but barometers measure air pressure (not temperature). That's perhaps a reason why you're 50p a minuite and we're £1.50 a minute !! Still I think we would all agree with the taters/tators description - and there's a lot more of that to come.

Jim

28 Feb 2006 by petermarkcraig

Jim.
Hope you don't think I was in any way ridiculing your excellent service!
My Grannies aneroid barometer has things written on it like wet,dry,very dry, windy although I admit that tators (you say tomater I say tomator) isn't on there.
If the big hand is pointing to the very dry bit at this time of the year you can bet your bottom dollar you'll need to wrap up.

Of course the grass looks good. The sun is shining.