Prodata Weather Systems Articles
Mark Hunt weather corner; 129 - Preparing turf facilities for an uncertain water future
In the last week of August this year, the long drought of 2026 ended. We received some welcome rain and pretty soon social media was brimming with then and now images.
Fairways and outfield that had previously been bleached brown bounced back to a verdant green and all was right in the world of turf management. Or was it ?
If you’re old enough to remember the similarly long and drawn-out drought of 1976 (as I am), it finished at exactly the same point, as did the drought of 2025. Uncanny that.
There is though an emerging difference between 2026, 2025 and 1976, and that’s what I want to highlight in this article.
In those previous years, we received higher-than-average rainfall in September and this pattern continued into October and beyond. Reservoir and river levels recovered quickly and underground water tables were replenished. Pretty soon the drought was forgotten as thoughts turned to drainage and keeping surfaces dry.
Fast forward to 2026 and it is clear we are not in the same situation; what’s more the long-term outlook is even more concerning. Let me elaborate.
Since the end of August, we have had rainfall across the U.K, but with heat in The Atlantic pushing the jet stream into a northerly position (as it has been for a long while), that rainfall has not been evenly-distributed. Right is a map of the U.K & Ireland with a diagonal line. Right of this line areas are still in very serious drought with high soil moisture deficit scenarios. Immediately left of this line, there are still areas in soil moisture deficit, but as we go further west and north, the situation is better and we even see soil moisture surplus at some locations. Now this is of course an approximation, but it gives you an idea.
I have taken some locations across the U.K and tabulated, rainfall, E.T. and the resulting soil moisture surplus/deficit that is present @ 04/10/26.
The table below shows a clear west – east/north – south divide, with significant drought present along the central and eastern areas extending right up the east coast.
So, unlike 2025 and 1976, our current situation is not in rectification mode.
Furthermore, we are facing an unprecedented warming in the Pacific in the shape of a Super El Nino. Now, a correlation between this and our weather patterns isn’t an easy task, particularly when we are faced with ocean temperatures much higher than they were when we last experienced a Super El Nino in 2015/16. That winter was exceptionally mild and exceptionally wet.
Currently, the prognosis from The Met Office is for a very wet November and December, potentially followed by the chance of a cold (and dry) start to 2027. Now this could easily be wrong because we are (forgive the pun) in unchartered waters when it comes to the scenario that faces us, but let’s just say it pans out this way. It means we could enter Spring 2027 on the back foot from a water perspective, with summer to come.
How should we react to this apparent threat?
How should we prepare our facilities and turf going forward?
There is some serious thinking required both organisationally and agronomically, and now is the time to do it.
visit: www.weatherstations.co.uk
Send your questions for Mark to: editor@pitchcare.com
